A new provincial disaster report shows that what turns a rare geological event into a mass-casualty disaster is not just the earthquake itself but whether or not communities are ready when it strikes.

Picture this: it’s a midsummer heatwave during wildfire season. A megathrust magnitude 9.0 earthquake ruptures off the shores of Vancouver Island.

Within minutes of violent shaking across Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland, 18,000 buildings are damaged, more than 3,400 people are dead, and 10,000 more injured. The shaking stops, and coastal communities receive a second warning: an imminent tsunami with multiple waves is on its way, and people are asked to move to high ground. Ten to 20 minutes later, it hits. Strong currents in Victoria’s Inner Harbour damage infrastructure. Meanwhile, wildfires continue to burn while responses are impacted.

Then, in late September, an aftershock hits: a magnitude 7.1 earthquake, 60 kilometres deep below Sidney, striking as an atmospheric river moves through southwest B.C.

This might sound like an incredible, frightening scene out of a science fiction movie. According to the British Columbia Disaster and Climate Risk and Resilience Assessment (DCRRA), dated October 2025, this is “currently one of the more likely earthquake scenarios in B.C.” The DCRRA puts the annual likelihood of this extreme event at under 1 per cent, which rises to between two and 10 per cent in the next 10 to 30 years.

Commonly referred to as “the big one,” scientists know this colossal earthquake is eventually coming due to building tectonic stress in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, but they can’t predict its exact date. It happens roughly every 400-500 years, and as of 2026, it’s been 326 years since the last one. According to the Oregon Department of Emergency Management, scientists currently predict there’s a 37% chance that a megathrust earthquake of 7.1 magnitude or greater will occur within the next 50 years in this fault zone.

The DCRRA ensures risk information is more available to communities and practitioners so they are able to prepare and act for situations such as this, the Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness (EMCR) told Victoria News.

“Being prepared is vital to reducing those risks,” the ministry said.

BUILDING SAFETY

The DCRRA includes a new hazards insight tool that shows an estimated 92 per cent of B.C.’s population and 78 per cent of critical facilities are exposed to the risks of a quake.

For decades to come, B.C. will have a mix of buildings designed to different earthquake standards. There are “high-code” buildings constructed to modern seismic standards, including the 2020 National Building Code of Canada and the newer BC Building Code 2024 that came into effect on March 10, 2025.

But then there are “moderate code” buildings constructed under codes developed in the late ‘80s to early 2000s, “low code” buildings, often built between the ’70s and ’80s, and “pre-code” buildings, considered “highly vulnerable.” They include red brick heritage buildings around Chinatown and Victoria’s inner core.

In 2017, a study commissioned by the city showed that a major earthquake could destroy or severely damage nearly 40 per cent of structures – around 4,000 buildings – in Victoria.

The province works closely with Natural Resources Canada and Codes Canada to ensure construction requirements meet the “highest known seismic risk factors to ensure people’s safety,” the ministry said.

Victoria News asked the City of Victoria whether it has a funded plan to address seismically vulnerable city-owned buildings and critical facilities, but the city did not provide specific details in its response.

“Emergency Management Victoria works to prepare for major incidents such as earthquakes through many diverse initiatives, including public education, supporting neighbourhood resilience, preparing internal plans and policies, and training and exercising staff to prepare,” the city said.

Through the Disaster Risk Reduction Grant, the city upgraded “most of its underground infrastructure” to be seismically resilient, the city said in a past interview. There is also a tax incentive program for heritage buildings that undergo alterations for seismic upgrading work.

CONCERNS ABOUT INSURANCE

Insurance is another matter. The DCRRA suggests a single major earthquake could destabilize Canada’s insurance industry.

The province noted it is “encouraged” that the federal government is starting to have discussions with insurers on how to stabilize the insurance sector in extreme earthquake events.

However, it noted there is room for even more action. In a statement, it called on the federal government to follow through on past commitments to implement a low-cost national flood insurance program and expand that to include earthquake coverage.

“Forty per cent of Canada’s population lives in areas of moderate to high earthquake risk,” the ministry said.

MITIGATION FUNDING

The province offers two funding streams – the Community Emergency Preparedness Fund (CEPF) and the Disaster Resilience and Innovation Funding (DRIF) program – that are available to help communities meet their mitigation needs.

As an example, the Town of Sidney is receiving $176,000 for a disaster-safe water supply project aimed at helping the community access alternate sources of potable water in a disaster event.

In partnership with the federal government, the province has invested more than $43.6 million through the Adaptation, Resilience and Disaster Mitigation program. In 2025-26, the Ministry of Transportation and Transit allocated $7 million for seismic retrofits.

Through the Seismic Mitigation Program, the province is replacing or seismically upgrading 71 schools, with 58 projects complete to date.

“The province has also made significant upgrades to seismic systems to improve safety in hospitals throughout B.C., and strict guidelines must be followed when building new hospitals to ensure they are resilient to seismic activity,” the ministry said in a statement.

THE UNANSWERED QUESTION

For now, the province says the DCRRA is a reference point for better understanding risks and taking steps to reduce them, and it will continue to work with partners to build on this assessment.

The next phase is focusing on supporting regulated entities, such as local governments, and community-led assessments that will lead to local action.

In order to help local governments meet their risk assessment obligations under the Emergency and Disaster Management Act, the EMCR offers guidance, tools, risk information and resources such as the B.C. Hazard Insights Tool and ministry-led risk assessments.

Asked how the government should prepare for low-probability, high-impact disasters such as the megathrust quake, Conservative critic for emergency management Sheldon Clare said planning must account for the reality that emergencies rarely unfold as expected.

“When a major disaster happens, all the best-laid plans tend to go out the window. You end up relying on the initiative of the people who survive and help coming from areas that are less affected.”

With the DCRRA, the science is clear, the risk is mapped and funding exists to help municipalities. Yet, how much safer British Columbians will actually be when they find themselves on shaky ground remains an open question.